Selecting the 2013 British and Irish Lions

In a recent interview with the Daily Telegraph Rugby journalist, and former England lock, Paul Ackford, Lions coach Warren Gatland admitted that based on recent test match performances, no Lions candidates would make a current World XV.

The New Zealander will not lose too much sleep when mulling over this thought, but it will concern him that certain individuals underperformed in the Autumn Internationals. As of now only a handful of players have cemented their places in next year’s Lions squad.

However, this is also because of more positive circumstances. Firstly, there is strong competition in certain positions, especially in the back row and on both wings. Secondly, many stars will return to action in the coming months, after missing the end of year tests. Rory Best, Dylan Hartley, Adam Jones, Paul O’Connell, Alun Wyn Jones, Sean O’Brien, Stephen Ferris, Tom Croft, Dan Lydiate, Brian O’Driscoll and Rob Kearney all missed out on playing the southern hemisphere’s finest this autumn but most should be fit for the Six Nations, which starts in February.

So as we near the end of 2012, who are the certain Lions 2013 tourists; who are those in the bolter (making a late surge for selection) category and who are the outsiders that Gatland might be tempted to gamble with when the tour party is finalised in April next year?

The Certainties:

Jonathan Sexton – the first man on the plane and certain to head to Australia, via Hong Kong. No other home union fly-half is playing close to Sexton’s consistent level and he continues to shine for province and country.

Dan Cole – Cole’s efforts at the breakdown, where he now looks like a natural openside flanker, have significantly improved since last year’s Rugby World Cup. The Leicester Tiger is also a world class scrummager, a facet of play that the Lions must dominate if they are to have any chance of a series win in Australia.

Cian Healy – The Leinster loosehead is beginning to transfer his Heineken Cup winning form onto the international stage. Mobile in the loose, he could provide the perfect foil to Cole on the opposite side of the scrum.  

Manu Tuilagi – Tom Wood was deservedly awarded the man of the match award in England’s win over New Zealand but the Kiwi press were quick to portray Tuilagi as the main catalyst for New Zealand’s downfall. Many pundits are still unsure on whether he is more effective as a 12 or 13, or even on the wing, but Manu’s powerful running could be equally as devastating on the hard grounds of Australia.

Leigh Halfpenny – Wales’ smallest player but possibly their bravest, certainly based on Wales' recent defeats. Safe under the high ball, dangerous in attack and crucially provides kicking options both out of hand and going for posts.

Jamie Heaslip – only a very brave man would head down under without the experienced three time Heineken Cup winner and three capped Lion. Ben Morgan, David Denton and Toby Faletau are all possible candidates for next year’s touring party but are likely to fight it out for one remaining number 8 spot.

The Bolters:

Craig Gilroy – a hat trick in the Ireland XV, uncapped, fixture against Fiji and a try in his first full international against Argentina, Gilroy is evidently a man in form. The Ulsterman looks like a Lion in the making and a successful Six Nations could see Gilroy force his way into Gatland's squad, ahead some of the more experienced wingers.

Freddie Burns – he may only have fifteen minutes of international rugby to his name but Burns looked completely at ease on the international stage, bringing his excellent passing and kicking form for Gloucester to Twickenham, against the All Blacks. 

Joe Launchbury – despite standing at a giant 6”6, somehow 21 year old Launchbury still looks his age but he plays like a man with ten years more exprience. This debate could be ended if Stuart Lancaster decides to bring Courtney Lawes back into England’s starting fifteen for the Six Nations, but Launchbury’s two caps have yielded widespread praise from across the UK and even from Kiwi and Springbok personnel – no mean feat.

Jason Tipuric – Welsh captain Sam Warburton is blocking Tipuric’s natural path to regular international honours but if Gatland lives up to his promise of only selecting natural openside flankers to tour down under next year, as opposed to Chris Robshaw’s multi back row ability for example, Tipuric fits the bill perfectly.

The Outsiders:

Andrew Sheridan – injury free and playing consistently well for Toulon, in the Top 14 and Heinken Cup, Sheridan’s scrummaging ability might force his way into Lions reckoning, for what would be a hat trick of Lions tour for the former Sale Sharks loosehead.

Steffon Armitage – A stand out performer in the French Top 14, Sheridan’s club colleague is consistently overlooked by England, due to player release issues, but like Tipuric, Armitage might be on Gatland’s radar due to his predatory work at the breakdown down and excellent support play. 

Nathan Hines – a 2009 Lions tourist to South Africa, an old warrior with excellent hands for a lock, Hines, who was born in Australia, has recently served a six match suspension but the Lions need some aggressive and experienced forwards, especially if Launchbury and other young forwards are also selected.

With so many Lions places seemingly up for grabs, next year's Six Nations could be the most exciting tournament in years. The fixtures involving the Home Union sides will certainly be played with added spice. And in twelve months time Gatland will certainly be hoping that talk of a World XV includes some of his victorious Lions stars.  

A final thought... After a depleted Australian side posted recent wins over England and Wales, next year will see the likely return of the likes of James Horwill, Will Genia, Rob Horne, Quade Cooper and James O’Connor but another name, less known in northern hemisphere rugby circles, could pose an enormous threat to the Lions. Israel Folau, a household name in both the NRL and more recently AFL, has changed codes again by signing for the NSW Waratahs. Folau will hope to learn the fifteen man code quickly and make an immediate impact in Super Rugby, ahead of possible Wallaby selection in 2013. Andrew Walker, a former NRL player but smaller in both reputation and physical size to Folau, proved a thorn in the 2001 Lions side. Do not be surprised to see Folau, the former Queensland State of Origin and Kangaroo try-machine, line up against the men in red next summer. 

@AMP_Rugby

I wrote this before the IRB announced their list - have a read

Who will be crowned as the 2012 IRB Player of the Year?

The IRB Player of the Year award, based solely on performances in international matches, has been won by many of the best players from the professional era, including Keith Wood, Jonny Wilkinson and Richie McCaw. Who are the favourites this year?

Kieran Read

The Crusaders star has continued his sublime World Cup winning form from last year and cemented his reputation as the best number eight on the planet. Back to back man of the match awards in his last two internationals, against South Africa and Australia, Read has terrorised opponents in both attack and defence in 2012. He is a very strong candidate to captain the All Blacks next year, when Richie McCaw takes a well-earned six month break from professional rugby, and like New Zealand’s most capped player, Read never puts in an average performance on the international stage.

Dan Carter

The 2005 winner has had an excellent comeback from the injury that prematurely ended his 2011 Rugby World Cup. Despite facing competition for the All Black number 10 shirt from Aaron Cruden, who has had a very promising 2012, the 93 capped stand-off has proved that he is still the best fly half in world rugby, emphasised by a commanding display against Scotland last Saturday. Carter has been at his best in New Zealand’s away matches this season, which will send shivers down the spines of the coaches and players from Italy, Wales and England before New Zealand’s remaining autumn internationals.

Dan Lydiate

Dan Lydiate produced a series of outstanding defensive displays in this year’s Six Nations and he was dually named the player of the tournament in Wales’ third Grand Slam since 2005. The Gwent Dragons blindside flanker also performed strongly down under, albeit in a test series defeat to Australia. He is a huge loss to Wales this autumn, following an early season ankle break, and judging by the performance against Argentina they are already missing him. But Lydiate should still be considered as one of the best international performers in 2012 and a return to fitness and form should guarantee him a place in the Lions squad next summer.

Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe

The Pumas captain led his country into unchartered territory when the South American side appeared in the Rugby Championship earlier this year. But the Toulon star well and truly led from the front, with his fiercely competitive spirit, immense work rate and impressive line out play. Argentina’s win over Wales in Cardiff was much deserved and Lobbe put in a very telling man of the match display, which included an excellent offload assist for his country’s first try, against the 2012 European champions. 

Bryan Habana

A resurgent Habana was far more consistent in 2012 than he was in the previous three seasons. Top try scorer in the inaugural Rugby Championship, the 2007 IRB Player of the Year was recently named the South African Rugby Union’s best player in 2012, for the third time in his career. Like Lydiate, he is unavailable for selection this autumn, due to an injury he picked up in Western Province’s Currie Cup Final win over the Sharks, but the 2007 Rugby World Cup winner looks as hungry as ever as he approaches the final few years of a glittering career.  

Players that deserve honourable mentions include Will Genia, Chris Robshaw, Wesley Fofana, George North, Rodrigo Roncero and Ma'a Nonu (plus many of his All Black teammates that have not been mentioned already). Sonny Bill Williams played superbly at the start of the international season, and would be a strong contender, but by moving to Japan, and confirming a return to Australian NRL Rugby League next year, he is unlikely to be considered for the IRB’s top individual prize.

You can never rule out three time winner Richie McCaw but Read has performed marginally better than his great club and country teammate this year (hence McCaw’s omission from this shortlist) and he would be a fitting choice to take the award back to Christchurch, where it has resided for four of the last seven years, thanks to Carter and McCaw. 

Emerging Belgium – the perfect location for Saracens’ next adventure

Following a superb 45-0 away victory over Edinburgh at Murrayfield, next Saturday Saracens are scheduled to play their first home Heineken Cup tie of the season in Brussels, against Parisian giants Racing Metro. Three years ago, Stade Francais and Ulster were due to play a European Cup group match at Belgium’s same national stadium, Stade Roi Baudouin, but after a heavy night’s snowfall it was postponed hours before kick-off and played the next day back in Paris. But an autumn fixture poses no such concerns and both Saracens and rugby in Belgium stand to benefit from their joint venture.

Why in Brussels? Of any developing rugby nation, Belgium logistically provides the best location for officials and supporters to travel from London or Paris. But staging a rugby match in a small rugby power is potentially risky and for the event to be a success it requires significant local support to help with promotion, ticket sales and other marketing initiatives.

In Belgium’s case this has not been too difficult. The mayor of Brussels, Freddy Thielemans, is a huge rugby fan (he used to play for the oldest expat Belgium club side, the Brussels Barbarians, and played for the national side), and has provided unreserved support, weighing in heavily to publicise the fixture. But Belgium has many rugby enthusiasts and the sport is growing each year in the capital of Europe. 

In the last fifteen years the number of registered players in junior, adult and both male and female rugby has more than doubled to well over 10,000. The men’s national side are currently ranked 23rd in the current IRB World Rankings (remember the Rugby World Cup is contested between 20 teams) and in 2013 they will compete in the Euro Nations Cup for the first time, widely recognised as the Six Nations ‘B’ tournament, against teams that have all competed at Rugby World Cups - Russia, Spain, Romania and Georgia.

This will not be the first time that famous rugby teams have played rugby at Belgium’s national stadium. In 2007, Argentina based themselves near Brussels for a week before their successful Rugby World Cup campaign. Their preparations finished with a 36-8 victory against a spirited Belgium Select XV, which included a few aging ex France internationals (such as Yann Delaigue and Emile Ntamack's brother, Francis) as well as current French international prop Vincent Debaty (who was born in Belgium). Many of the remaining Belgian side were players based in France’s second, third and fourth tiers but the majority played for clubs in the top Belgian league.  

A year later a touring Barbarians side, which included World Cup winners Ian Balshaw and Stephen Larkham and former Lions captain Gareth Thomas, faced an inexperienced Belgium line up and ran riot in an 84-10 victory. Clearly the free flowing and risk taking nature of Barbarians rugby is not the ideal test for rugby players from emerging nations but few would argue against other developing rugby nations organising a similar fixture, against one of Rugby’s oldest and well known brands, in the future to boost the sport’s profile.

Saracens have worked hard in and around the Brussels area to market the game and have run several coaching camps for local Belgian clubs and schoolchildren. At the beginning of October, their community coach Lewis Sones and star flanker Jacques Burger, the Namibian captain at the 2011 Rugby World Cup (a country who are only one place above Belgium in the latest World Rankings), headed over to Brussels for the most recent of these clinics.

In September, England winger Chris Ashton and the South African 2007 Rugby World Cup winning captain John Smit were chosen by the club to appear at a press conference in Brussels promoting the game, which was attended by many journalists from the UK, France and Belgium.

A source from the Belgium Rugby Board is hoping for a crowd in the region of 30,000 supporters (capacity is 50,000) - a realistic target as this is the same number of tickets that were sold for the Stade Francais v Ulster clash. 10,000 tickets had already been snapped up at the end of September and the game will appear live on Sky Sports (in the UK and Eire) and France 2 (in France and Belgium).

The match is perhaps risky for Saracens as they are desperate for Heineken Cup success but they are giving up home advantage against Racing, who fittingly have a Belgium international (Jens Torfs) in their squad this season. But their commercial initiatives off the field are unrivalled in the Aviva Premiership and they stand to increase their already diverse supporter base in another market. Their Belgian adventure is a risk well worth taking.

 Did you know?

 - The current President of the International Olympic Committee, Jacques Rogge, is a former Belgian rugby international.

@AMP_Rugby

Turning Boudjellal’s millions into silverware

It has been six years since comic strip millionaire Mourad Boudjellal bought RC Toulonnais, his hometown club, and began a quest for French and European club rugby domination. Money aside, few in their wildest dreams could have imagined the wealth of global talent that he has persuaded to head to the south of France since 2006. Even less would have predicted the successive trophy less seasons that followed. This season that could all change.

Let’s put his acquisition into some context. The original comparison in football is Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich’s acquisition of Chelsea shortly after the 2002/03 Premier League season, in which the club finished 3^rd and qualified for the following season’s Champions League. The team have gone on to win every major trophy since, at least once. In contrast, Boudjellal took over a struggling Toulon side that were in the depths of the Pro D2, French rugby’s second tier league, and therefore a minimum of two years away from an appearance in the Heineken Cup.

Undeterred, Boudjellal set a high transfer standard by signing retired All Blacks captain Tana Umaga, as his first galáctico. Regrettably the ex-Hurricane only managed to play a handful of matches, although the team won most of these and Umaga also coached the side with some success. Further billboard signings arrived, but only on short term deals. Four were certainly worth it at the time as, in 2008, Anton Oliver, Andrew Mehrtens, Victor Matfield and George Gregan helped Toulon to the Pro D2 title, and promotion back to French rugby's elite. But while boosting the profile of the French outfit, none of these players stayed on the Mediterranean coast long enough to create the dynasty Boudjellal so desperately craved.

Sonny Bill Williams also arrived on a huge pay packet, but it took a while for the former rugby league star to learn union’s tackling technique, complex running lines and to apply his outrageous offloading ability in this more congested form of rugby. And just when he began to show glimpses of his excellent NRL form, he left for New Zealand, in search of an All Black’s jersey.

More high profile international signings have arrived in the last three years, but these have been characters that recent coaches Phillipe Saint- Andre and now Bernard Laporte, the current and former coaches of the French national side respectively, have been able to build their team around, and for successive campaigns. A revitalised Jonny Wilkinson arrived in 2009 and at the end of his first season with the club he was named the best fly half in the Top 14 by French magazine Midi Olympique. Current captain Joe van Niekerk and fellow back rower Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe have also led from the front imperiously and been constant figures in the Toulon starting line-up.

Their efforts have contributed to Toulon reaching the Amlin Challenge Cup final on two occasions, in 2010 and 2012, only to fall short at the final hurdle. Toulon’s biggest disappointment, but also most impressive feat in the professional era, came at the end of last season when Laporte’s men lost in the Top 14 final to Toulouse, the team Boudjellal is determined to topple as the dominant force in French rugby.

This year Toulon has an even more settled and impressive squad, with depth in most positions. At lock they have former internationals Bakkies Botha, Simon Shaw and Nick Kennedy, while ex Springbok Danie Rossouw joins the club early next year. Freddie Michalak provides impressive cover for Wilkinson and Chris Masoe, another recent signing with Top 14 experience, can play all three back row positions. At loose head prop they have Andrew Sheridan and Gethin Jenkins who, in 2009, were the two British Lions chosen in that position for the last tour to South Africa. Every week hugely talented, international rugby players sit on the bench for the Pilou-Pilou.

Players are constantly linked with Toulon - millionaire owners tend to attract such rumours, but fewer players are arriving on short term contracts and more dependable figures than Oliver, Gregan, Williams, Matfield and Umaga, are being targeted. This is personified by Steffon Armitage, the former London Irish star, who only has a few England caps to his name yet was voted Midi Olympique Top 14 player of the season award in his first year as a Toulon player.

Chelsea would not have achieved success in the Abramovich years by buying the best aging Brazilian or Spanish internationals, on short term contracts, starting in the Championship and built on foundations of second tier players. Toulon might just be worth a flutter on winning the Top 14 or Heineken Cup (or even the double). It would certainly be nice if we mortal rugby folk could also gain from Boudjellal’s millions!

And finally.....

At the peak of their powers and out of any player that has been at Toulon in the Boudjellal years, who would make your starting XV? My choice is below (apologies France!):

Toulon’s Galácticos

Coach: Bernard Laporte

1) Gethin Jenkins

2) Anton Oliver

3) Carl Hayman

4) Simon Shaw

5) Victor Matfield

6) Jerry Collins

7) George Smith

8) Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe

9) George Gregan

10) Jonny Wilkinson

11) Luke Rooney

12) Sonny Bill Williams

13) Matt Giteau

14) Tana Umaga (captain, albeit out of position)

15) Gavin Henson (let the debate begin!)

 Subs:

Sebastien Bruno

Andrew Sheridan

Bakkies Botha

Joe Van Niekerk

Mathieu Bastareaud

Andrew Mehrtens

Pierre Mignoni

Disagree? Select yours in the comments section below.

Follow me on Twitter: @AMP_Rugby 

Argentina can be proud but they are desperate for a first win in the Rugby Championship

The inaugural Rugby Championship ends this weekend and the mighty All Blacks have continued their World Cup winning form – they have already won the tournament and stand on the verge of a unique clean sweep of victories. But it is the introduction of Argentina, finally invited to play in a competition organised by SANZAR, which has really reinvigorated interest in the Southern Hemisphere’s flagship international competition. A home 16-16 draw against South Africa, and strong (albeit losing) away performances in New Zealand and Australia have justified their place at rugby’s top table. The Argentinians have every chance of winning their final match at home, against a luckless Australian side.

That said, earlier in the summer the signs looked ominous for Los Pumas. The big three Southern Hemisphere sides had won eight out of their ten summer international matches against British and Irish opponents, with only Scotland gaining a rather unexpected midweek win over Australia and England salvaging a final test draw against South Africa. After winning their first summer test in June, Argentina found themselves victim of a huge backlash from France, and they went into their first Rugby Championship match on the back of a 49-10 home drubbing.

Their build-up was also hit by an expected decision from talismanic fly-half Felipe Contepomi. One of the strongest proponents for Argentina to be accepted into an annual top tier rugby competition, Contepomi opted to make himself unavailable for selection for the first Rugby Championship, so he could concentrate on club matters at Stade Francais (do not be fooled by him appearing on the homepage of SANZAR’s official website). Fortunately another ten, Juan Martin Hernandez, also a member of Argentina’s superb third placed 2007 Rugby World Cup squad, was fit to return after three years in the international wilderness, and it has been a real bonus to see the team’s most famous rugby player back playing at the highest level. In the five Rugby Championship matches Argentina have played so far, other backs have demonstrated moments of South American magic; Martin Landajo’s opening score at home against New Zealand and the elusive running of Lucas González Amorosino. But their side’s resolve and strength has come from their forward pack and from one aspect of their physical approach in particular.

As was the case in 2007, rugby fans worldwide have marvelled at the consistency of the collective Argentine rucking. The way their players link arms and together trample over, not on, bodies on the floor, easily pushing opponents off the ball, looks so fluent that many rucks appear unopposed. School masters and youth team coaches from Durban to Edinburgh should use their technique as an example to all young aspiring rugby players. While Argentina have changed coach and many players from the class of 2007 have retired, it is evident that rucking, and a strong set piece, still form the bedrock of Argentinian rugby. Three veterans, one from each row of the scrum, are experts in this area of their country’s rugby philosophy and deserve to end the campaign with a win in Rosario on Saturday evening.

The Pumas have been led brilliantly by Toulon’s Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe. He has carried well, tackled his socks off and been strong at the breakdown. He has certainly not looked out of place against the mighty McCaw, Read and Alberts, and he will undoubtedly make many pundits’ team of the tournament. His longstanding teammates and fellow tradesmen playing their club rugby in France, Patricio Albacete and Rodrigo Roncero have worked just as tirelessly, providing two of the Pumas’ abiding memories of the tournament. In the home draw against South Africa, Albacete made a crucial turnover close to his own try line, under enormous pressure from the Springbok forwards, which proved a telling contribution in securing Argentina’s first points in the Rugby Championship. It was Roncero’s trademark burrowing try, in their away tie in New Zealand, which meant they went into the half time break only 6-5 down against the current World Champions. No mean feat – not many teams would complain at being one point down at half time during a test match in Wellington.

Are Argentina likely to beat Australia? They should be favourites on the back of the Wallabies’ humiliating defeat to South Africa at Loftus Versfeld last weekend. But the Pumas also put in their weakest performance of the tournament and they were destroyed by Savea, Jane and co in a 54-15 home loss to the All Blacks. The stats portray a painful night at the office. Even Lobbe, Albacete and Roncero only made a mere 13 successful tackles between them, compared to the 38 at home against South Africa.

But a nasty concussion to Adam Ashley Cooper and punctured lung to Berrick Barnes have depleted an already injury ravaged Australian squad and this hands the advantage back to the South American outfit. They join James Horwill, David Pocock, Will Genia, James O’Connor, Drew Mitchell and Quade Cooper on the side-lines and the pressure is very much on the remaining experienced members of Robbie Deans’ team. Ioane, Beale, Samo and, fourth choice, captain Sharpe will need to be at their inspirational best if the obliterated Australians are to salvage some pride in a disappointing defence of their 2011 Southern Hemisphere crown (and also possibly prevent Robbie Deans from losing his job).

Albacete, Lobbe, and Roncero, possibly playing in his last test match, will be quietly confident of victory when they run out together on Saturday and do not be surprised if the magic of Hernandez proves the difference in Rosario, which is, incidentally, the birthplace of fellow mavericks Che Guevara and Lionel Messi.

Follow me on Twitter: @AMP_Rugby 

Harlequins - not so Elite?

Harlequins have started the season ominously, with four straight wins and 19 points from a possible 20, and the rest of the Aviva Premiership is already playing catch up with the aristocrats from West London. The likes of Leicester and Saracens do not even have the early season excuse of losing players through Rugby World Cup selection. Their success should be great news for England, as the majority of the Quins team are English born and bred. Five of the squad are currently in the England Elite squad – but shouldn’t a few more be?

England are still very much a work in progress side but in just over nine months their coach, ex school teacher Stuart Lancaster, has worked wonders, when you consider the situation English rugby found itself in during and after the 2011 Rugby World Cup. He has installed a new backroom division and he has not been afraid to get the proverbial cane out - temporarily banishing players from the squad should they step out of line, just ask Harlequins’ very own Danny Care. And importantly, the players appear to enjoy being part of the new set up. But for all the positive vibes, the squad does not look completely settled and it is surprising that a few more Quins players are not involved. 

One of the reasons that Twitter interests many of its users more than other social media sites is because it offers the immediate and instinctive insights of certain individuals that previously would have remained private. Sir Clive Woodward gave us one such impulse reaction, shortly after Leicester’s home loss against Harlequins on Saturday, when he Tweeted “(Nick) Easter v impressive, if England are going to pick on merit he needs to come back in”. Twenty four hours later in another Tweet, SCW also asked Mo Farah to give him a call. But back to the rugby, everyone is hoping that Lancaster targets immediate success and is not too obsessed with the next Rugby World Cup. As we learned in South Africa, Ben Morgan, a terrific prospect, is still learning his trade in international rugby. Maybe it’s time to let Easter earn back some of that £35k he lost down the toilet after England were knocked out early during last year’s miserable Rugby World Cup campaign?

From a possible recall to the uncapped contingent and second row, George Robson is a player that continues to impress with each performance. He is everywhere; making offloads, smashing tackles, hitting breakdown after breakdown and even scoring tries. His line out work and scrummaging are sufficient, although recently England coaches have picked locks predominantly on their set piece proficiency. Geoff Parling and Mouritz Botha both performed admirably in the Six Nations and on the summer tour to South Africa. But having already captained his club and country (albeit in a midweek tour match in SA) in the absence of Chris Robshaw and being part of a such a confident and winning environment, the time is right to finally give Robson an opportunity at the highest level, possibly to form a new second row partnership with Courtney Lawes.

Joe Gray is another Quins forward that is close to moving from the Saxons to the Elite squad, although his role should be more of a support position to Dylan Hartley, who on current form is favourite to wear the number two jersey for the Lions next summer. Either Gray or Tom Youngs, of Leicester, are likely to replace Rob Webber, desperately unlucky with a persistent shoulder injury, and Gray’s contribution to Quins’ win over Youngs’ Tigers puts him in pole position for the vacant slot.

And what about out wide? Danny Care and Mike Brown are already part of the full England squad and both should line up at scrum half (unless Ben Youngs returns from injury and quickly finds his 2010 form) and full back respectively for England in their first Autumn international against Fiji. With Ben Foden injured, club mate Ross Chisholm could even provide cover for Brown, and on the wing, although Jonny May of Gloucester is also in the mix (and this one cannot be settled by a try off). Quins’ only current Lion Ugo Monye is getting ever closer to a recall, although probably not a starting place. Centre has been a problem position for England in recent years and while Manu Tuilagi is a certain starter, Matt Hopper (remember his Pirate pass?) and George Lowe are not too far away from favourites Jonathan Joseph and Brad Barritt for the other starting berth. 

The rigid rules of the England Elite squad make it unlikely that Lancaster will make many changes to his squad before November. But do not be surprised if more Quins players join captain Robshaw, Marler, Care, Turner-Hall and Brown and make the revised Six Nations squad in January. If Quins continue their early season form and start the Heineken Cup in similar fashion, a real possibility as they have a favourable draw in Pool 3, Chris Robshaw will soon be leading an England squad that contains many more familiar faces.

(For the record I am not a Quins fan! Interested to hear your thoughts so please comment or follow me on Twitter @AMP_Rugby)

Twenty into two: a nice problem but who should Gatland pick on the wings?

Here’s a question for you. Who will be the starting British and Irish Lions wingers against Australia in the first test in Brisbane next June? I am not a huge fan of Lions speculation this early - John Bentley and Jason Robinson were two unexpected (wing) tourists and few, if any, would have picked them in the September before the 1997 and 2001 tours, respectively. But truth be told, I have already had a couple of conversations about it - that’s what happens when you have two rugby playing brothers. The Lions have huge strength in depth on the wing, similar to that of the back row, but who will get the nod?

In 2009 Sir Ian and co picked 5 wingers in the original squad (there’s no point in looking at the 2005 squad as if you weren’t selected on that tour you were actually in the minority). A couple of players in the Rabo Direct Pro 12 have already put their hands up for selection, but not necessarily the players that were in your pint filled discussions on this topic a few months ago. Tim Visser, the flying Dutchman but finally capped on Scotland’s summer tour to Australia and the Pacific Islands, currently tops the try scoring standings with a monstrous six tries in three matches. He has also topped the end of season charts for the last three campaigns – an outstanding achievement and demonstrates that he is not a flash in a pan character. Andy Fenby, who incidentally Visser Tweeted is his favourite to top the scoring charts this time round, has started the season well and has three tries to his name. Man (boy) mountain George North, a player who continues to improve each time he puts on the red shirt of Wales, is a born Lions Test starter and is actually second on the list with four tries. His current fellow Welsh wing partner, and Grand Slam winner, Alex Cuthbert is the final name to appear and we all know what he is capable of. Throw Tommy Bowe, outstanding in South Africa in 2009, Andrew Trimble, Keith Earls, Leigh Halfpenny, Lee Jones, Sean Lamont and Max Evans into the mix and the Lions clearly have a selection dilemma. And that’s only taking the Celtic nations into consideration.

Over to England and Chris Ashton remains the first winger on the England team sheet, but for how much longer? Christian Wade has had a sensational start to the season for Wasps, even scoring a Billy Whizz on Latham-esque try in his first Aviva Premiership outing against defending champions Harlequins at Twickenham. Fellow youngster Marland Yarde has also scored tries and played well in a faltering London Irish team. We have seen in the past that previous Lions tour experience is invaluable and if Ugo Monye continues to regain some form, after various injuries, who would bet against the Quins flyer making back to back Lions squads? Matt Banahan, David Strettle and Charlie Sharples have fallen behind slightly in recent months but are by no means out of contention. Could Kyle Eastmond make a late surge into the England set up and then into Lions reckoning? I would also give a mention to Tom Varndell – four tries in his first three matches this season (as has the relatively unknown quantity of Matt Jess of the Exeter Chiefs - but who was the now excellent Tom Johnson until he was selected for the Saxons and then full England team?) and he seems to have a much stronger physical dimension to his ball carrying and even better support play. England have a tendency to shut the door on talented attacking players, if their defence, or physicality in general, is suspect. Matthew Tait and the electric James Simpson-Daniel are testament to this, although injuries have also been their downfall. And look at Topsy Ojo – the poor chap might retire with only two England caps to his name but amazingly with two tries BOTH against New Zealand and BOTH actually scored in the land of the long white cloud, albeit in a defeat, but still against Dan and Richie, if that gives an amazing stat even more credence.

For those of you who haven’t got past the tight five yet, and trust me you will struggle to do so nine months before the tour, there you have around twenty names to consider, but remember only going for 5-6 spots. There appears to be the perfect balance between size and power, footwork and pace, running lines and kicking ability. The latter, and his versatility at being able to play full back, should secure Leigh Halfpenny a seat on the plane (could the same apply to Delon Armitage?) I feel some of the English players have question marks on their defence and certain players have a strange nous for holding the ball in the wrong hand or picking the one, maybe even only, late running line which will not lead to a try being scored. Around ten of those names are likely to dominate most clubhouse discussions and North and Bowe are currently my favourites for the coveted number 11 and 14 shirts. That said, Ashton has also proved a real thorn in the Aussies side in the past. If you disagree, head to youtube and look at his three tries against them in Sydney and Twickenham in 2010. (Intriguingly the same applies to Ben Youngs – having unique form against one country is a strange concept but could it prove to be the difference between a winning and losing series?). A lot of people will argue that the Wade’s, Fenby’s and Eastmond’s should not be in consideration because they are uncapped. But Lions tours are not won on cap tallies - just ask Sir Clive Woodward. Form is paramount – just ask Jason Robinson, Alan Tait and John Bentley.

I will always remember the Jim Telfer “getting picked is the easy bit” quote from the 1997 victorious Lions tour to South Africa. Whilst he was talking about actual Test match selection and motivating the team before the first test, it looks like it will actually be very difficult for the wingers to be selected for the 2013 tour, let alone start the test matches. But that is certainly not something (hopefully one day “Sir” if that is possible?) Warren and co will be worrying about.

Pro 12 European Cup qualification: storm in a teacup? Written by @AMP_Rugby

English and French sides, well more precisely, Leicester Tigers, Toulouse and London Wasps used to dominate the Heineken Cup (HCup). Johnson, Pelous and Dallaglio used to almost take turns at lifting the trophy. Add Northampton's win in 2000 and from 2000-2007 English and French clubs won 7 of the first 8 HCups in the noughties. But in recent years the Irish provinces have created a dynasty of their own, with Leinster and Munster victorious in 5 out of the last 7 instalments of European rugby's show piece event, clearly to the annoyance of the Top 14 and Aviva Premiership (AP) administrators. This has led to England and France serving notice to withdraw their clubs from ERC competitions from the 2014-2015 season. They are pushing for only the top six (Rabo Direct) Pro 12 (formerly Celtic League) teams to be guaranteed places in the HCup, instead of having 10 automatic places. In theory, they argue, teams would be less likely to rest players in Pro 12 matches in the run up to European ties, which should make HCup matches more fair. Money, in terms of the revenue redistributed from ERC competitions and feeding back to English and French clubs, is undoubtedly the real reason for the threatened withdrawal. The Pro 12 teams receive a disproportionately high return of funding from the ERC whereas the Top 14 and AP revenues are split between their 14 and 12 teams, respectively, so each receives far less than the Irish teams. But, for the purpose of my first blog, let's focus on the proposed Anglo French so called merit based changes to the qualification format, pretend their desired changes will be implemented and look at how this would have affected previous editions of the HCup.

If we analyse the final stages of the HCup from 2006 – 2012 looking at the Pro 12 clubs to make the semi-finals and the Pro 12 league standings from 2005 – 2012, all of the Pro 12 HCup semi-finalists from 2006 – 2011 HAD finished in the Top 6 of the Pro 12, in the previous season. In the 2011-2012 HCup, however, Edinburgh would be the first, well ONLY (out of 12 Pro 12 HCup semi-finalists), team to fall foul of the Anglo French system. They became the first Scottish side to make the HCup semi-finals, which included a terrific quarter final win over four times winners Toulouse, yet they had finished 8th in the 2010-11 Pro 12.

Under the "new" qualification rules would these semi-finalists also have qualified for the following year's event? Similar results are produced:

2006: Leinster and Munster both finished in the Top 6.

2007: Llanelli Scarlets finished 4th.

2008: Munster finished 3rd.

2009: Leinster and Cardiff both finished in the top 6.

2010: Leinster and Munster both finished in the Top 6.

2011: Leinster finished 2nd in the Pro 12.

2012: Leinster and Ulster finished in the Top 6 but Edinburgh finished 11th.

Poor old Edinburgh - the only club seemingly bearing the brunt of the "new" Anglo French qualification system, if we backdate it.

There's no need to check if English and French teams qualified for the HCup. But were AP and Top 14 HCup semi-finalists able to secure qualification for the following year's tournament?

For the Premiership four from eight did not:

- 1997-98 HCup champions Bath made the semi-finals in 2005-06 but failed to qualify for the next season's event.

- Northampton made the semi-finals of the 2006-07 HCup but were relegated from the Premiership in the same season!

- London Irish (who only qualified because of Wasps' tournament win in 2006-07) and Saracens were also semi-finalists in 2007-08 but finished 7^th and 8^th in the Premiership respectively and failed to qualify for the 2008-09 HCup.

For the Top 14:

- 2010-11 semi-finalists Perpignan finished 8^th in the Top 14, failing to qualify for next season’s event.
- (Biarritz were losing finalists in 2009-10 and only secured HCup qualification by making the final, as they only finished 7th in the Top 14 that year (their opponents Toulouse had already secured qualification after finishing 4^th in the Top 14). Under the Anglo French qualification rules Biarritz would also have qualified as the remaining two qualification places are for the winners of the HCup and Amlin Challenge Cup).

Would Bath, Northampton, Saracens or Perpignan have won the HCup in those years if they had not been fighting to qualify for the same competition the following season? Very unlikely. And why between 2006 and 2012, Leicester (twice) and Biarritz (once), did both make the HCup finals the same year they won their domestic league title? In one of those seasons (2006-07) Leicester also won the Anglo Welsh Cup. Clearly fighting battles on two, or three, fronts is not such an issue for AP or Top 14 sides.

The above analysis does ignore performances of teams earlier in the tournament and Pro 12 teams obviously did not have the same pressure of having to qualify for HCups so we will never know how a change to the qualifying rules would actually have affected their HCup performances. But it is also impossible to believe that Leinster or Munster would not have won HCup finals in 2006, 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2012, with this added burden. In practice nothing would have changed - if you need more proof, just look at the league placing each province secured in the year they won the HCup:

2006: Munster finished 3rd.

2008: Munster finished 3rd.

2009: Leinster finished 3rd.

2011: Leinster finished 2nd.

2012: Leinster finished top but lost the play off final to the Ospreys.

Munster and Leinster simply became experts at winning the big European matches, just as Leicester, Toulouse and Wasps had learned in earlier editions of the HCup. A generation of players from across the Irish sea have replaced Johnson, Dallaglio and Pelous in becoming club European greats - in O'Connell, O'Callaghan, O'Gara, O'Driscoll, Heaslip and Kearney et al, the best club European players of a generation hail from Ireland (you can probably add Thierry Dusautoir to that list but who else from France / England?). The two provinces have also recruited excellent foreign players to complement their outstanding home grown talent - Elsom, Nacewa, Howlett and Mafi to name a few. The same is currently in practice at Ulster with Pienaar, Afoa and Muller joining Ferris, Best and Trimble in helping them to reach the 2012 HCup final. The foundations of the earlier success of French and English sides were built on solid home grown talent, just like this current generation of Irish players. The English players at Leicester and Wasps in particular were better than any group of English players currently playing in any AP squad.

Is relegation a more important issue than qualification requirements? The Top 14 and AP need, and are fortunate in my view to have, relegation. France and England have enough clubs for two professional leagues and a series of lower divisions with evolving teams that strive to be in these professional leagues. Imagine a Pro 12 with relegation? The loss of TV and sponsorship revenue from not being in top flight rugby would have disastrous consequences for its clubs, let alone them having to worry about performances in that year's HCup. In the example of Edinburgh earlier, would they really have put as much effort into Europe with the risk of being relegated from the Pro 12? Northampton did and look what happened to them in 2007, although you could argue they are a better club for this experience (so are Harlequins). But look at the examples of Bristol and Bourgoin, both of whom played in the HCup in recent years but are a life time away from competing in it again (Bourgoin have been relegated twice). The Pro 12 will never have relegation - does this therefore mean that qualification for Europe's elite Rugby competition will be never be entirely merit based, as so desired by England and France?

The centralisation of the best local talent in the provinces or regions will continue to work against France and England teams, regardless of changes to the qualification system. How the Ospreys, four times winners of the Pro 12 (more than both Munster and Leinster), have never even made an HCup final is beyond me and the performance of the Welsh regions in the HCup in general is a separate discussion altogether. Due to a self-imposed salary cap, which is lower than the level in France, England and Ireland, and the loss of key talent to France it will be even harder Welsh region to win the nation's first HCup. Munster's success in Europe is beginning to dwindle due to retirements (David Wallace, Jerry Flannery and John Hayes) but English and French clubs need to produce new groups of winners that are concentrated at few of their clubs. Harlequins are possibly on the verge of producing something special, through their home grown talent and in Nick Evans they have the best fly half in European rugby (apologies Mr Sexton) but like the Ospreys have never even played in an HCup semi-final...

A compromise is sure to be reached between all ERC stakeholders at a meeting in Dublin this week and it is unlikely that the top 6 teams from the Pro 12 will qualify for a revised HCup (thanks for wasting my time looking into this issue!!). Judging by the above simple findings it would not guarantee English and French success and as stated earlier the real reason for their threat to leave European competitions is to do with money - the AP's huge TV deal with BT Vision emphasises this point.  As a final thought though, it would be very bad news for rugby in Europe if a future scenario where no Italian or Scottish teams, for example, qualified for a revised top tier European competition. At a time when Georgia and Russia, and other European countries, are vastly improving, it would be a giant leap backwards if the discussions do not safeguard the participation, every year, of teams from each of the Six Nations countries.