In a recent interview with the Daily Telegraph Rugby journalist, and former England lock, Paul Ackford, Lions coach Warren Gatland admitted that based on recent test match performances, no Lions candidates would make a current World XV.
The New Zealander will not lose too much sleep when mulling over this thought, but it will concern him that certain individuals underperformed in the Autumn Internationals. As of now only a handful of players have cemented their places in next year’s Lions squad.
However, this is also because of more positive circumstances. Firstly, there is strong competition in certain positions, especially in the back row and on both wings. Secondly, many stars will return to action in the coming months, after missing the end of year tests. Rory Best, Dylan Hartley, Adam Jones, Paul O’Connell, Alun Wyn Jones, Sean O’Brien, Stephen Ferris, Tom Croft, Dan Lydiate, Brian O’Driscoll and Rob Kearney all missed out on playing the southern hemisphere’s finest this autumn but most should be fit for the Six Nations, which starts in February.
So as we near the end of 2012, who are the certain Lions 2013 tourists; who are those in the bolter (making a late surge for selection) category and who are the outsiders that Gatland might be tempted to gamble with when the tour party is finalised in April next year?
The Certainties:
Jonathan Sexton – the first man on the plane and certain to head to Australia, via Hong Kong. No other home union fly-half is playing close to Sexton’s consistent level and he continues to shine for province and country.
Dan Cole – Cole’s efforts at the breakdown, where he now looks like a natural openside flanker, have significantly improved since last year’s Rugby World Cup. The Leicester Tiger is also a world class scrummager, a facet of play that the Lions must dominate if they are to have any chance of a series win in Australia.
Cian Healy – The Leinster loosehead is beginning to transfer his Heineken Cup winning form onto the international stage. Mobile in the loose, he could provide the perfect foil to Cole on the opposite side of the scrum.
Manu Tuilagi – Tom Wood was deservedly awarded the man of the match award in England’s win over New Zealand but the Kiwi press were quick to portray Tuilagi as the main catalyst for New Zealand’s downfall. Many pundits are still unsure on whether he is more effective as a 12 or 13, or even on the wing, but Manu’s powerful running could be equally as devastating on the hard grounds of Australia.
Leigh Halfpenny – Wales’ smallest player but possibly their bravest, certainly based on Wales' recent defeats. Safe under the high ball, dangerous in attack and crucially provides kicking options both out of hand and going for posts.
Jamie Heaslip – only a very brave man would head down under without the experienced three time Heineken Cup winner and three capped Lion. Ben Morgan, David Denton and Toby Faletau are all possible candidates for next year’s touring party but are likely to fight it out for one remaining number 8 spot.
The Bolters:
Craig Gilroy – a hat trick in the Ireland XV, uncapped, fixture against Fiji and a try in his first full international against Argentina, Gilroy is evidently a man in form. The Ulsterman looks like a Lion in the making and a successful Six Nations could see Gilroy force his way into Gatland's squad, ahead some of the more experienced wingers.
Freddie Burns – he may only have fifteen minutes of international rugby to his name but Burns looked completely at ease on the international stage, bringing his excellent passing and kicking form for Gloucester to Twickenham, against the All Blacks.
Joe Launchbury – despite standing at a giant 6”6, somehow 21 year old Launchbury still looks his age but he plays like a man with ten years more exprience. This debate could be ended if Stuart Lancaster decides to bring Courtney Lawes back into England’s starting fifteen for the Six Nations, but Launchbury’s two caps have yielded widespread praise from across the UK and even from Kiwi and Springbok personnel – no mean feat.
Jason Tipuric – Welsh captain Sam Warburton is blocking Tipuric’s natural path to regular international honours but if Gatland lives up to his promise of only selecting natural openside flankers to tour down under next year, as opposed to Chris Robshaw’s multi back row ability for example, Tipuric fits the bill perfectly.
The Outsiders:
Andrew Sheridan – injury free and playing consistently well for Toulon, in the Top 14 and Heinken Cup, Sheridan’s scrummaging ability might force his way into Lions reckoning, for what would be a hat trick of Lions tour for the former Sale Sharks loosehead.
Steffon Armitage – A stand out performer in the French Top 14, Sheridan’s club colleague is consistently overlooked by England, due to player release issues, but like Tipuric, Armitage might be on Gatland’s radar due to his predatory work at the breakdown down and excellent support play.
Nathan Hines – a 2009 Lions tourist to South Africa, an old warrior with excellent hands for a lock, Hines, who was born in Australia, has recently served a six match suspension but the Lions need some aggressive and experienced forwards, especially if Launchbury and other young forwards are also selected.
With so many Lions places seemingly up for grabs, next year's Six Nations could be the most exciting tournament in years. The fixtures involving the Home Union sides will certainly be played with added spice. And in twelve months time Gatland will certainly be hoping that talk of a World XV includes some of his victorious Lions stars.
A final thought... After a depleted Australian side posted recent wins over England and Wales, next year will see the likely return of the likes of James Horwill, Will Genia, Rob Horne, Quade Cooper and James O’Connor but another name, less known in northern hemisphere rugby circles, could pose an enormous threat to the Lions. Israel Folau, a household name in both the NRL and more recently AFL, has changed codes again by signing for the NSW Waratahs. Folau will hope to learn the fifteen man code quickly and make an immediate impact in Super Rugby, ahead of possible Wallaby selection in 2013. Andrew Walker, a former NRL player but smaller in both reputation and physical size to Folau, proved a thorn in the 2001 Lions side. Do not be surprised to see Folau, the former Queensland State of Origin and Kangaroo try-machine, line up against the men in red next summer.
